The current political trajectory in Texas indicates a significant erosion of Republican support, driven by underwater approval ratings for Donald Trump and mounting ethical scandals surrounding ultra-extremist MAGA candidate, Attorney General Ken Paxton.
The trend doesn’t look good for Republicans. If the election was held today, Democrats would take control of the U.S. Senate by 4 seats.
Who do Democrats in Texas have to thank for the erosion of support of the Republican candidate in Texas? The answer is easy, Donald J. Trump. All Trump can do in November is hinder Republican opponents instead of helping them.
Donald Trump endorsed the Attorney General of Texas, Ken Paxton, the definition of corruption, over his incumbent and long time friend John Cornyn in the primaries, so ultimately Ken Paxton won. Trump bet that he could keep his streak going in an attempt to put as many corrupt people in Congress that he could. But this time, it will work against him, at least finally in the state of Texas.
Ken Paxton’s opponent in the Democratic party come November in the midterms is James Tallerico. the Democratic opponent of Paxton has increased his win probability from 19% in January to 45% currently. Tallerico campaign is successfully capturing independent voters, largely fueled by high-profile bipartisan defections from the Republican party.
The Republican party defections are led by John Cornyn’s former deputy legislative director, Jacob Smith, a Republican. He has been up to now a Republican life-long staffer, but he decided to cross the isle to support Tallerico as a deputy policy director. This changeover signals a significant shift in coalition building, which Cornyn defended as a necessary outreach strategy for the GOP rather than a personal betrayal from Donald Trump.
So for the first time in many years, the Democrats actually have a very good chance to win another seat in Texas, and it may just take this one seat to put the Democrats up to with a lead in Congress that even a tie vote by party lines and a tap for Republicans in the final vote by the Vice-President to put Republicans up on top for voting may not be able to happen. Tallerico is not the only Democrat that is challenging Republican Senators nationwide.
In Texas, Trump thought that his Gerrymandering success of getting more Republican seats would insure that Republicans would still win elections, but now in Texas, that’s not necessarily true. Trump is thinking with the Gerrymandering that he and the Republican Governor succeeded in the state, Republicans have a chance to keep the state of Texas in the Republican column during elections.
Even with Trump’s Gerrymandering success, polling data reveals a COLLAPSE in support for Donald Trump within the Hispanic community, both nationally and specifically in Texas. The Hispanics will have the ability to bury the Republicans in the fall and in 2028 during the national election.
Latinos may rule the day in November 2026. What’s driving the shift for Latino voters is disapproval of Trump, primarily anchored in the economy. Trump now holds a net negative 46% approval rating on economic issues within the demographic, a near 50 point movement against him compared to 2024 by Latinos.
Another reason for the shift is because of Trump’s overall job approval among Latino voters. His approval among Latino voters have dropped 18 points from 46% record share to a 28% rating. But Trump could care less.
So, corrupt felon President Donald J. Trump doesn’t really care about the party he actually belongs to. He selects bad candidates like Paxon to represent Texas in the U.S. Senate. Paxton’s record is absolutely one of the worst any candidate could have or every have had, but yet Trump has supported him anyway, because Paxon is a corrupt MAGA, just like him, through and through.
Paxton’s record, specifically his vote against animal abuse accountability and allegations of protecting research labs linked to the torture of over 400 puppies is something that votes will not take a blind eye to.
And if you haven’t noticed, Ken Paxton rapid wealth accumulation, including millions earned from hospital board positions and cell phone tower deals, which lead to his previous impeachment by Texas Republicans are just a few reasons why Paxton will not have the support in November to beat Tallerico.
In Texas, there is growing local opposition to the “data center capital” initiative pushed by Governor Abbott and Trump. Critics highlight the disruption of residential areas and the provision of full tax breaks and free electricity to these centers at the expense of local taxpayers is just some of the corruption that Trump continuously pushes out on the American people. But it’s not going to work.