Category: Dow Futures

Just Day #2 of Trump’s World Wide Tariffs – A Recession is now on the Horizon

April 4, 2025

The market freefall continues. Just yesterday, the DOW plunged by 2,035 points in a massive sell-off. Another $2 Trillion dollars just wiped out of the U.S. economy. A final report for the day will be coming after the markets close. Why does the markets continue to plunge? Because just as expected, China has retaliated with reciprocal tariffs aimed at the U.S. The tariff response is very high. What is the tariff imposed by China? Who cares at this point. What China has done was to make sure that its people don’t purchase American made products because they will be priced out of reach by most people in their country, and they will be forced to purchase anything besides U.S. goods. That’s how the Canadians are thinking too. Economists predict that a recession probability jumed from just 40% last week to 60% this week.

Why does China want to raise prices to their people. Actually, they don’t want too, as unfortunately China seems to know more about global trade than our president does. The end goal is to make sure that the Chinese people decide to purchase Chinese products instead on American made markets. That’s the idea behind tariffs. The demand for U.S. products will go down, and exports to China will go down. China will do what the American president thinks he can do better. The fact is that Trump most likely will not ever be successful, but the Chinese president most likely will because China will now have more willing trading partners than America. And if the Chinese president can’t do it all on his own, he will import from other countries, like he is already doing. The Chinese economy is surpassing America’s economy by a long shot. Canada and Mexico have made recent trade agreements with China, so they can import goods at just about no tariff rate attached. So China will be better off. America will not. Canada has decided to sell the oil to other countries instead of America. Previous to Trump’s trade war, Canada was sending 97% of all oil they produced to America. That’s no longer. What country in their right mind wants to trade with America right now. The answer is – NONE. Free trade will continue between the rest of the world, excluding the United States. So what’s left for America? As Trump sees it as temporary pain, the prices of goods will come down. If America can hold on as long as that will take, Trump may be right. The prices will come down because the supply of American goods will increase because other countries will not want to pay high prices for our products that they can purchase elsewhere at a lower price. American products with higher inflated prices will have to be purchased by U.S. consumers.  The U.S. buyer will not have much of a choice other than to buy American, as foreign products will become more expensive to buy. Since the products Americans will be purchasing more now will be made in America, the prices will go down. The ‘Supply vs. Demand’ formula no longer works in a ‘stagnation’ economy. The prices will have to come down to convince any American to purchase anything.

Unfortunately, America does not have the time to wait for this to happen. It can’t happen overnight. The auto industry is a prime example. Let’s take Ford Motors for example. Not a single Ford vehicle sold in this country can be made with parts ONLY made in America. If Trump put a 100% tariff on Mexico, Ford Motors would go out of business immediately. A percentage of parts put in Ford products are made in MEXICO. So in order for the cars to be sold in America, the part made in Mexico that are installed in Mexico will be tariffed and the parts, along with the vehicles will go up drastically in price. Tooling an economy in the U.S. that can handle making products totally in America like the automobile will take more time than Donald Trump has left in his 2nd term. Can the citizens of America wait for this to happen? Of course not. The markets are steadily dropping each and every day. 401K’s are dwindling, people are loosing jobs. Farmers are going to be decimated. China has just banned Soybeans from the U.S. Soy bean exports will drop considerabaly and some U.S. farmers will go out of business. Nothing short of a recession can happen if things don’t turn around.

Maybe Donald Trump has a trick in his sleeve to jump start the U.S. economy, but he has not given not even once ounce of the formula and the steps he is taking to accomplish this, other than to tariff the world.

The world economy is just what it states. It’s a world economy, and Trump doesn’t like it. He’s obsessed with tariffs. He did them in his first presidency, and he’s doing it again. China saw the first taste of tariffs from Trump in 2017. Now they are ready to confront him, and they are. Trump will never get the economy under control with the time he has left in office. The pain that America is experiencing will be felt for years to come.

Well, I didn’t realize that the stock markets have closed while writing this article. It’s even more dismal than yesterday, with the DOW dropping another -2,231.07 points, with the value dropping another 5.5 %, at least another $2 trillion in a single day.  More to come in the next article.

Since inauguration day, market losses now verge on $11 trillion. 

Markets Crashed from the First Moment today – No Liberation Day but a Promised Recession

April 3, 2025

Right on cue. As predicted, the U.S. stock market has tanked, as Donald J. Trump, a convicted felon destroys the U.S. economy that was once the envy of the world.

As the coward Trump is, he waited until the stock markets closed yesterday when he finally initiated his latest tariffs, this time affecting countries around the world. And yes, he says he doesn’t monitor the stock markets. Just another lie.  It is now officially known at the Trump International Trade War. Trump owns it. He cannot blame Biden or Obama. No smart president in his right mind would do such a thing, but Trump is literally sick, and he is now taking the country to a recession and a lower GDP of at least 3%. Before his election, the GDP was expected to grow by at least 3%. When the markets closed yesterday, i.e. the DOW was up by 235 points. Traders were hoping for the best, but knew what was going to come as soon as Trump went forward with his dire plan.

The DOW futures just before market opening in just 10 minutes is down by nearly 1200 points. A total disaster.

Time to pause this report, as the moment of recogning is fast approaching. I’ll continue with this note when the markets actually open in 8 minutes…

9:30AM ET (MARKETS NOW OPEN)

OK, the moment is here.   The DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE, known as the DOW, closed yesterday in the green from the previous day of 235 points, up by just .56%. This morning it has now opened in the negative of 1,111.22 points or -2.63% from yesterdays close of 42,225.32.  I’ve been predicting this moment for months. It opened today at 41,114.10. That is just a total disaster, completely brought on by Trump, who wants to make sure that Americans feel pain. The economy is weaker and EVERYTHING just got more expensive. So much for Donald Trump promising that the economy will get better and that he would lower prices.  Some businesses will be forced to close. At this moment of time, there is the highest unemployement filing in the country since 2021. This disaster all happened in the last 80 days, when Trump became president.

The other markets that Americans follow fell too, and not by just a little. Roughly two hours before the start of trade at 9:30AM ET this morning, futures for the S&P 500 plunged 190 points, or 3.3%, while futures for the Dow Jones Industrrial Average and the tech-heavy Nasdaq composite index sank 3% and 4%, respectively.

I am literally sick about this result from Trumps egregous disregard to the American economy. Countries around the world will reciprocate in their own way with tariffs against the United States of their own.  Like I said, literally EVERYTHING has just become more expensive. It’s like jumping off of a cliff. Once you jump, you will continue to fall to your death. This is what is happening to us now.

Donald Trump is a disaster in all things related to the economy. He’s the guy that promised to address the high cost of living, and he stated that costs would go down on DAY 1 of his presidency. That is not happening. Costs are not going down, they are going up. Inflation is going up.  No doubt the stock market is colapsing, and what that means is that the retirement savings of every day Americans are disappearing by the hour. It is all because of Donald Trump’s reckless mis-managment of the economy, as he knew full well what was going to happen. Economists predicted it and now these tariffs that he imposed will raise the cost of everything for everyday Americans in many estimates of thousands of dollars per year. Who gets affected the most? Regular people like you and me will feel the ‘pain’, and it’s not going to go away any time soon. Of course rich guys like Trump and Musk could care less because the tariffs don’t affect Trump. They will affect Musk in a way as it will negatively impact his Tesla business but that’s just a drop in a bucket for the richest man in the world.

Trump was supposed to help grow the economy, at least that’s what people voted for him to do when he became president, but instead, he is crashing the economy in real time. Today is NOT liberation day, it’s RECESSION DAY, because that’s where we are headed.

Most people aren’t aware of these things until it affects them. Maybe they will wake up when the cost of gasoline goes through the roof. That’s coming. I haven’t been wrong in the past, and I’m not wrong now. It’s coming.

All we can do now is pray that Trump shows his cowardness once again when he finally drops the tariffs, hoping that other countries will drop theirs. Yes, he says he doesn’t look at the stock exchanges, but I would bet any money that he is now.

Trumps Claim – Liberation Day is Tomorrow April 2

April 1, 2025

Well, today is April Fools Day, and it is truly a day for fools. What’s being liberated is your wallet, your paycheck and the economy. In the few days up to ‘Liberation Day’, the stock markets have been very unsettled. On Thursday last week, the markets crashed with a 700 point fall. But on Friday and Monday, the markets responded positively. This is known as the ‘Calm before the Storm’.

Now, idiot Donald Trump is putting his tariff wars on a worldwide scale. Chaos is visable for everyone to see. His reciprical tariffs as he calls them are meant to hurt just about every country that does business with the United States. As if the markets haven’t suffered enough, Trump’s aim is to deliver ‘PAIN’ around the world. And Trump claims he doesn’t care about anyone or their personal wallets. He claims that he doesn’t watch the stock market, but everyone knows that’s a lie. If he really does not, that in itself is a tragedy, proving the point that he doesn’t care about Americans and their well being. He doesn’t care if inflation goes up. Maybe all he needs to do is talk to his co-commander and chief Elon Musk, and ask him how the trade wars are effecting his Tesla business.

Markets, traders and brokers react in advance of things. They calculate their decisions before the big event to be able to capitalize on what’s going to happen.

Just so you realize this, Trump has already destroyed the tax base of the Internal Revenue Service. To run our government, to pay on social security, veterans benefits, medicade and medicare, student loans, there are regulations surrounding how things operate. Donald Trump is destroying all the norms and protections that the American people have enjoyed since World War II.

Trump thinks he can tariff his way to liberate America to eliminate debt, but instead, he is doing just the opposite. He wants to tariff to the tune of 4 trillion dollars. That’s what the economists say, and people who understand better than I what Trump is trying to do here. The only thing I understand from all of this is that he wants the money to give tax breaks for the rich, although he claims that he will also balance the budget, which is impossible, mainly because of the tariffs he is now imposing on the American people.

The American people are SUCKERS. At least the people who voted for him are. Many who voted for him are now out of work. Their lives destroyed from the king they thought would save our economy. Now where is it?

Automobile reciprical tariffs posed by other countries to the U.S. will cripple the U.S. economy. Trump claims that we don’t need help from Canada or Mexico. Really!!! Does he not understand that EVERY American car today can not be assembled in America without parts that are made in Canada and Mexico? Reciprical tariffs from other countries will expode the cost of American cars. Goods and consumeables that come from both Canada and Mexico will soon be priced out of reach. Gasoline prices will soon explode. Canada now plans to cut off oil exports to the U.S. while they also plan to cut hydro-electric power to a few northern states that depend on Canadian power. But even before they completely cut off the power, they will tariff their energy to American consumers. Prices of energy have already gone up. So tell me where Trump is saving our economy.

Doesn’t Trump realize that Ford and GM make their cars in MEXICO? You can’t built an American made car using American made parts. World trade has evolved in such a way that all countries are dependent on each other. Maybe that’s not the vision that Trump has, but it’s the reality that we face at this moment. You cannot just turn off Canada and Mexico if you plan to build American made cars.  There is a high percentage of foreign imports, including from Japan, parts that are installed in American made cars. Foreign and GM cars that go across the border during producion are subject to tariffs and the cost of these vehicles will skyrocket. Even if all of the Assembly lines for American made cars were in the United States, which they are not, car productions would cease, because the United States is not tooled up at the moment to produce all parts that go in American made cars.

Now personally, I don’t believe that Trump will go through with this ‘liberation day movement’. Why do I believe that? Because Trump is watch the stock markets, even though the liar that he is says that he’s not watching. The world economies and stock markets are reacting negatively to what Trump is doing with tariffs.

Consumer confidence is down at its lowest in three years. Manufacturing confidence is down at its lowest in more than ten years. Most major investent banks have raised their expectations considerablly that a recession is coming. The odds given by these banks  put the odds now at about 40%. It’s hard to imagine that just 70 days ago when Biden was still President that the markets were booming and the United States economy was the envy of the world. Now, the world is nervously watching the U.S. economy crumble, and is looking for a new leader in world markets, sidestepping the United States as the country to envy.

SO, THE TRUMP RECESSION IS JUST AROUND THE CORNER. He will own it. His Republican party will explode because of it. Unfortunately, the American people will feel the ‘PAIN’ from it. But we have just under two years to go before Trump becomes a ‘lame duck’ and his Republican party will crumble. Hopefully by then, it will not be too late for the Democrats again to try and save the country. But I don’t believe it can happen now until a recession happens and if this president is allowed to act as he has done since the election, a depression will come next. Then maybe the only being that can save us the ‘our Supreme Being’, God himself.

Stay tuned for stock market updates starting tonight with the close of the market. But what I can tell you now that just about all the gains the markets gained on Monday has been extinguished, as the futures show  the DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE now down by 231 points or .55%. Stock futures for the S&P and NASDAQ markets are also down. Tariff anxiety lingers which is not a good thing. The markets will preface what the traders will feel on ‘liberation day’ in which millions or billions of dollars will be ‘liberated’ from Americans who support our markets, thanks to a president who claims he doesn’t care how we feel. Also, you may want to check your 401K value as the week goes on. If I’m right, it’s not going to be pretty.

Wall Street hanging by a Thread

March 17, 2025

It wasn’t the greatest day on Wall Street today, as the DOW kept some modest gains throughout the day and ended in the positive.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed with a positive gain of 353 points, up .85% ending at 41,841.63. But the markets were jittery to say the least, as it was up at one point by 483 points, but in the last minutes of the open market, the DOW dropped.

The one basic reason why it did go into the tank today is because Donald Trump kept his mouth shut and didn’t proclaim more tariffs. But with that said, he promised he was going to make a statement to institute reciprical tariffs on any country that is imposing tariffs on the United States. In an attempt to destablize the markets, Trump will definitely achieve his goal ob April 2nd the date he picked to make the announcment.

Without a doubt, with just a few weeks to go, I can absolutely tell you that the markets will crash on that day.

Recently, Trump has received some very strong pushback fron Canada. The Canadians are not taking Trump’s threats lightly. They have been hurt, insulted, and not respected as a soverign nation by Trump. He claims that Canada does not have anything that we need and that everything that we import from Canada, we can get at home.

How sick is this guy? Does he not realize that Canada delivers at 97% of all oil exports directly to the United States? Doesn’t he realize that presently Canada is supplying electricity to 3 border U.S. states? Doesn’t he realize that Canada provides the necessary minerals that are needed in production of automobiles and computers and most electronics that the U.S. manufactures at home?

Trump has an end goal in mind. At the top of his list are his rich buddies that he wants to give a tax break to. He believes all the cuts he is making in government will pay for the tax breaks for the rich.

He’s gutting many government agencies in an attempt to crash the market so that prices will have to go down. His self induced resession will turn into a Trump depression.

Already, mortgage prices are down by at least 1% across the board, but that is actually a bad sign that Trump is succeeding in his goal to gut America.

Meanwhile, his popularity has hit rock bottom amongst Democrats, and the Republicans, many who have voted for him in the election are not far behind. Many recognize that they made a bad choice. The man that they trusted to FIX the economy is now gutting it.

Many laid off workers and closed businesses within the Federal government are now a reality, and Trump , along with his buddy Musk are not done yet.

Luckily, the courts are stepping in, while Trump has been defying court orders regarding deportations and the Judges involved are reversing Trumps orders to deport people and to close businesses. Trump has presidential immunity, and he’s exercising it, thinking that no judge can touch him as long as he wants to disobey judges orders when he performs illegal actions while under the cloak of the presidency.

As usual, I go off in a tangent sometimes when there is so much news about Trump these days that I can’t stay on topic.

Getting back to the markets, let’s see what another day gives us with tomorrows trading. At the moment, the DOW futures also known as the E-Mini Dow Continuouse Contract is down by 25 points setting at 42,200. Futures begain at 42,225. I will watch it throughout the night and report again in the morning.

 

The DOW Rebounds – A Great way to End the Week

March 14, 2025

Again, what happened today was totally predictable. Donald Trump did not issue any new tariffs and the markets rebounded and in big fashion.

When Trump keeps his mouth shut, the country benefits. That does not mean that the markets are out of the woods yet, even though all three major markets, the DOW, S&P500 and tech heavy NasDAQ have all rebounded. At a final minute tally, the Dow finished the day up by 1.65% for the day closing at 41,488.19. What a sharp difference from yesterday’s trading as it ended yesterday at 40,813.57.

So yes, the market rebounded at least for one day, while adding 674.62 points. It saved the week from total annialation. For what’s been happening lately, that’s quite impressive. The usual winners were NVIDIA Corp and American Express stocks. These are known as staple stocks, in which other major companies try to rally with and emulate their businesses and practices around these companies that always seem to be on top.

What does NVIDIA offer to the markets that’s so appealing?

One product would be the implementation of AI. This form of technology that seems to take over the mindset of intellectual thinking adds computer logic to the human formula to come up with a product that is far superior than if the result was created by just the human mind.

NVidia has been into the computer scene for quite a while now and they seem to have all the answers to keep things rolling smoothly and going in a positive direction. When you check the markets recently, Donald Trump’s political maneuvering continued to shake global markets and rattle US consumers. But even during Trump’s tariff statements that seem to crash the markets each day, NVidia seems to alway be able to pull through, or at least I should say that they pull through more times than they fail too.  Every company has their bad days, but if I had money to wager on a stock just a few months ago, I would have put my bet with NVidia. Today, their performance was stellar, as shares are jumping, now up 3.5% as they are building servers with AI capability.

American Express has been one of the companies that are always on top and always a good bet to perform well in the markets.

Since I mention Donald Trump quite a bit in this website, I wanted to say something that is happening that is POSITIVE and most likely BECAUSE of Donald Trump.

Graph showing 30-year and 15-year mortgage rates going down from Jan 5 to March 2 2025.

 

Investors are exhausted after recent financial market chaos, but there’s one perk for weary homebuyers and that is lower mortgage rates. The 30- and 15-year mortgage rates have both steadily dipped for six weeks straight alongside bond yields. Actually that is teriffic news. Way to go Donald… But I would suffice to say he does not even realize that he actually is the reason for something good that’s happening. I think even ‘The Donald’ would be suprised.

DOW FUTURES – MARCH 14, 2025

As of this writing at 12:46 CDT here at the moment, the Dow futures look POSITIVE. It shows now being up by 208 points, which is .5% of the total holdings of the stock.

Unless something really happens on a positive note during trading when the markets open, the DOW will drop again by another 500-700 points.

In order to stop this, something really good has to happen that would really make news. But the facts are that the only thing we are talking about here most of the time recently is TRUMP TARIFFS. That talk will not help the stock markets but that’s pretty much all that’s making Trump news at the moment.

We benifit from a global trade market, and Donald Trump doesn’t want to trade in a reasonable fashion globally. He would rather make all of his competitors throughout the world move their businesses to America, and then as he says, there would be no tariffs for whoever moves here.

He’s also mentioned the fact that Canada should be our 51st state, and that they wouldn’t have to pay any tariffs if they were annexed to the United States. The same with Greenland. Trump wants to take over Greenland, which will never happen, in order to excavate the minerals he has lost because his poor tarrifs to Canada and now the lack of cooperation between the two countries. If he truly was their friend, he would be able to obtain the minerals he would like to have without Canada being annexed to the United States. Again, it’s another imposiblity, and another pipe-dream of Donald Trump.

In short, when Trump mentions tariffs, the market tanks. When he keeps his mouth shut for at least 24 hours without any threats, the markets will rise. Let’s see where it goes today.